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◆ CNN (2024-3-10) : the Economist declared that Taiwan was “the most dangerous place on Earth.”; The world's most dangerous place has only gotten more dangerous. Perhaps the extraordinary and rapid growth of China and the reality of America's dominant status made this inevitable, "destined for war" .  In the past, Communist China believed that it could wait (reunification) because time was on its side. But that premise is proving untrue. This issue will need to be managed rather than solved —All three sides should keep talking ... ◆ United States Institute of Peace (2024-3-5) : After Taiwan's election, China is now ratcheting up the pressure. China's efforts to change the status quo with Taiwan could lead to unintentional conflict. ◆ Associated Press (2024-3-5):  conquest over the self-governing island democracy of Taiwan, driving Indian forces from their disputed border, and asserting control over islands in the East China and South China Sea all on Beijing's list of priorities. ◆ Reuters, 2024-3-5: In the government work report, China reiterated a call for "reunification" with Taiwan, but dropped the descriptor "peaceful", which had been used in previous reports. The change in language is closely watched as a possible sign of more assertive stance towards Taiwan.  China raises defence spending by 7.2% ◆ USNI.org, 2024-3-1: Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense and Military Issues / The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption.  Civil-military relations are strained...Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and its military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.  it is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, physical safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear in the face of possible PRC armed aggression...renewing U.S. debates about how to allocate limited resources to shore up Taiwan's resilience  ◆ New York Times, 2024-2-26: The P.L.A.'s now-normalized presence around Taiwan raises the risk of an accidental confrontation. Taiwan's response has been inconsistent and lacks transparency, which may further embolden Beijing...Taipei's approach to sharing information about Chinese activities with the public has not been fully transparent  ◆ Financial Times, 2024-2-27: Chinese research ships increase incursions near Taiwan ◆ Financial Times, 2024-2-23: In the past, China would only talk about the ‘one-China principle’, but now they have rolled it all into one with the push for unification ◆ VOA, 2024-2-23: Taiwan faces tough balancing act as China increases pressure ◆ Yahoo News, 2024-2-24: Trump wouldn't say definitively one way or the other whether he would defend Taiwan. DAVID SACKS: and actually blame Taiwan for taking America's semiconductor industry.  So I do think the US presidential election could be a real factor here. ◆ CNN, 2024-2-23: Xi takes a page from Putin as he vows to control Taiwan; Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world has not seen in a century since before World War II.     full text

◆ Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-16: A war over the island could easily cause a global depression.   A Chinese seizure of Taiwan could trigger a race among nations to develop their own nuclear arsenals as U.S. security guarantees lost credibility ◆ DW, 2024-2-16: Elbridge Colby: Taiwan's military preparation has "lagged behind the scale of the threat" despite some incremental progress. "Not really doing anything near what it would need to do to make itself more defensible" borders on "vaguely suicidal behavior"  ◆ CSIS.org , 2024-2-13: Specific interests, rather than democratic solidarity,  stability, rather than debates over Taiwan's sovereignty are more likely to drive engagement with Taiwan in most parts of the world  ◆ War On The Rocks , 2024-2-12: the military balance of power has shifted decisively, enabling an amphibious invasion from a capabilities standpoint in the not-too-distant future, while prospects of peaceful unification have faded. As such, it is now something of a conventional wisdom that a Chinese invasion has become more likely than not.   Taiwan's armed forces should instead prioritize the acquisition, production, and employment of mines, drones, and missiles. Mines are likely Taiwan's best way to “buy time” with minimal risk  ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-2-8: Differences over Taiwan's status have fueled rising tensions between the island and the mainland.  Through its policy of strategic ambiguity, the US has for decades attempted to maintain a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and preventing a war with China. But President Joe Biden has seemingly rejected the policy, stating several times that the US would come to Taiwan's defense if China attacked. White House officials have walked back his comments, saying the policy has not changed, but ultimately, the president gets to decide how to respond. ◆ TIME , 2024-2-9: In an event of invasion, the first 48 hours are extremely important, because that’s the window within which China will take advantage of its geographic proximity, and it will take some time before the American Navy Indo-Pacific Command can respond to a major contingency,  “That's where the Philippines comes in.”◆ Newsweek, 2024-2-8: US Army special forces as a permanent arrangement train Taiwan troops in Penghu, Kinmen and Taoyuan; the permanent presence of American forces on the island was considered a possible trigger for a cross-strait shooting war ◆ Reuters, 2024-2-6: If an attack comes, the Pentagon believes Beijing will want to seize the capital as fast as possible and isolate the island's leadership; Stopping that would require rapid mobilisation -  but more than two million former conscripts receive no ongoing further training   ◆ New York Times, 2024-2-5 briefing: China's expanding nuclear arsenal - The weapons could also shape the future of Taiwan — if China gained confidence that it could use their existence to limit Western intervention in any conflict ◆ National Interest, 2024-2-2:  hybrid warfare operations still fit better into China's cost-benefit calculus. China's invasion of Taiwan seems unlikely in the short term. Instead, the military aspects of China's hybrid warfare operations may be more visible in the near future ◆ Reuters, 2024-1-31: Taiwan angered at 'unilateral' China change to Taiwan Strait flight path, saying it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to change the status quo for possible military means.     full text

◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-1-19: The prospect that Taiwanese voters might never elect a Beijing-friendly government again could tilt China toward harsher methods to seek unification, including military force ◆ Washington Post, 2024-1-17:  The Taiwanese people showed they are not interested in becoming a pawn in the U.S.-China competition. Taiwan wants ties with both the US and China ◆ New York Times, 2024-1-17: A peaceful solution on Taiwan is slipping away.  Chinese law explicitly states that Beijing may use force if possibilities for peaceful unification are “completely exhausted.”.  Conflict between China and the United States just got a little more likely. ◆ New York Times, 2024-1-15: Taiwan's president-elect represents a setback for China.  Some U.S. officials have warned, China will be increasingly ready to try to seize or subdue Taiwan by force... Lai may have to watch his tendency for occasional off-the-cuff remarks, which Beijing could exploit and turn into crises  ◆ full text

◆ Washington Post, 2024-1-10:  increasingly frequent warnings from China's strongman leader Xi Jinping that Beijing's rule here is “inevitable” — raising the prospect of a conflict that could draw in the United States ◆ New York Times, 2024-1-9: Chinese officials have framed the race (presidential election) as a choice between peace and war. A warning from Taiwan about a satellite, erroneously called a missile in English, raised concerns about Chinese harassment days before an election.  ◆ Wall Street Journal , 2024-1-9:  The problem is that Beijing can't tolerate Taiwan's example of a thriving Chinese-speaking democracy in which voters settle political differences at the ballot box. If a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, this will be why. ◆ BBC, 2024-1-9: Today, the DPP no longer talks about the need for formal independence and the KMT speaks of dialogue with Beijing, but sidesteps the subject of unification, or whether Taiwan is part of China. Both are now embracing Taiwan's peculiar "status quo"- it elects its own leaders, but it is not considered a country ◆ Economist, 2024-1-8: victory for the DPP is far from certain. The party once appealed to young voters, but after eight years in power it has a stuffy image. Wage growth has fallen behind inflation and house prices are high... fears of an energy-price crunch. Most importantly, it has become clear that China will not have formal contact with DPP governments ◆ Fox News, 2024-1-6: The potential winner could further cement moves toward what could be called ‘de jure Taiwan independence.’ This will significantly increase the possibility of a war between the two sides; a war in which the U.S. will almost certainly be involved in ◆ Washington Post, 2024-1-5: With wars in Europe and the Middle East, U.S. power is stretched dangerously, historically thin. The temporary reduction in cross-strait tensions that would accompany a KMT victory could give Washington a window — if politicians are willing to seize it — to put the U.S. military deterrent on a firmer footing ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2024-1-5: a growing chorus of voices argue that continued support to Ukraine is detracting from the real threat—namely, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan; Prematurely abandoning Ukraine to preserve resources for Taiwan could embolden other adversaries. It might, for example, signal to Iran and North Korea...  ◆ The Guardian, 2024-1-5: The next president of Taiwan is likely to shape events less through proactive measures than his response to circumstances he cannot dictate: a crisis such as a military manoeuvre gone wrong, or more broadly, China’s internal politics ◆ Atlantic Council, 2024-1-3: Beijing's direct economic-electoral linkage ahead of the election may end up being a double-edged sword. If the purpose is to influence the election's outcome, then it could backfire ◆ Reuters, 2024-1-3: 'Hawkish' China military squeeze on Taiwan likely after election. If the DPP wins the presidency but loses its majority in parliament, that could also temper China's response given it would weaken the DPP's ability to pass legislation ◆ Fortune, 2024-1-2: opposition blame China tensions for pushing the chipmaker TSMC to invest overseas ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-12-29: Taiwanese politics has shifted decisively, and perhaps irrevocably, away from China. In Taipei, Lai paints a picture of a Taiwanese public far less preoccupied with Beijing’s designs than political leaders in the Western world. The KMT accused the DPP of underplaying the deterioration of cross-strait ties and the risk of war ◆ CNN, 2023-12-29: Beijing has long used its massive coast guard as a force to project power, some analysts believe that China could soon start to deploy the coast guard to ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan ◆ NBC, 2023-12-26: Xi's private warning  on reunifying Taiwan to Biden was delivered at a time when China's behavior toward Taiwan is seen as increasingly aggressive and ahead of a potentially pivotal    presidential  election in the self-governing democratic island next month. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. said: First, create a robust defense supplemental for Taiwan and second, draft pre-invasion sanctions from hell to impose on China if they take action to seize Taiwan. ◆ New York Post, 2023-12-26: Xi Jinping says China's ‘complete reunification’ with Taiwan will ‘surely’ happen   ◆ full text

◆ New York Post, 2023-12-21: China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession. ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-12-20: China distrusts Lai far more than Tsai.  China is all but certain to greet a Lai victory with intensified military, economic, and political pressure. ◆ Brookings Institution, 2023-12-18: although China would respond to a Taiwan declaration of independence with a military campaign, Beijing knows that this would be quite risky, in part because the PLA is not ready to undertake such a complicated campaign; a wide-ranging campaign of coercion that includes displays of military force but a variety of non-military pressure and intimidation, a low-risk approach, targets the confidence of the people of Taiwan, and there are signs that it is gradually working. ◆  Economist, 2023-12-13:  There is an argument from the us that although Taiwan is a key security interest for the US, it should stop saying that. Because that's going to provoke China, and the US should say it's up to the people of Taiwan and China to decide their future.  Taiwan's vice pres. candidate: Taiwan is a security interest primarily for the people of Taiwan. But Taiwan is also a security interest for the world.  ◆ Reporters Without Borders (RSF) , 2023-12-13: Taiwan is a country that suffers from one of the lowest trust rates in the media among democracies (28%) and where the media community is often criticised for disregarding journalism ethics... journalists suffer from a very polarised media environment dominated by sensationalism and the pursuit of profit at the expense of quality news reporting. ◆ The Conversation, 2023-12-11: While Taiwanese people are concerned about potential conflict - one poll finds more than 80% of Taiwanese people believe the China threat is worsening – prospects for peace and stability are also affecting the island’s international business and investment outlook. ◆ The Diplomat, 2023-12-11: Taiwan's election is not a turning point for US policy -  but- Continuity in U.S. support for Taiwan and hardening against China will face an inflection point if Biden is replaced by Donald Trump or some other candidate with strong “America First” leanings in the November 2024 elections  ◆ The Guardian, 2023-12-9: Cracks are appearing in China's monolithic regime – and its leader might decide a military adventure will strengthen his grip on power ◆ Fortune, 2023-12-5: After Israel and Ukraine, Taiwan business leaders fear Taipei-Beijing tensions may trigger the next geopolitical conflict...the Republican-led House approved money only for Israel in November, defying Biden's request for spending for all three allies (Ukraine, Taiwan). ◆ New York Times, 2023-12-4: Taiwan's presidential election candidates have focused on who can best handle the island's volatile relationship with China. But many voters, especially those in their 20s and 30s, say they are weary of geopolitics and yearn for a campaign more focused on their concerns, like rising housing costs, slow income growth and narrowing career prospects... could be a crucial factor in deciding the presidential election ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2023-11-30: as the United States works with Taiwan to strengthen its security, it must avoid giving the impression that it is moving toward restoring formal diplomatic relations or a defense alliance with the island. Combined with a conditional and credible threat of a military response by the United States and Taiwan to the use of force, such assurances will help prevent a war.   ◆ full text

◆  New York Times, 2023-11-26: Taiwan, a highly online society, has repeatedly been found to be the top target in the world for disinformation from foreign governments.  RAND: China's disinformation work has had “measurable effects”.  Critics denounced the government's anti-disinformation campaign as a political witch hunt, Taiwan's media ecosystem, with its diverse political leanings, often produces pro-Beijing content that can be misattributed to Chinese manipulation.      ◆ full text